Global travel to hit record-breaking levels in 2026 despite Middle East conflict

Global travel is set to reach a new record number of travellers in 2026, despite cost-of-living pressures and conflict in the Middle East.

Countries worldwide are predicted to receive a record 1.57 billion international arrivals by the end of 2026, according to a new report by the World Travel Market and researchers at Tourism Economics, an Oxford Economics Company.

Dave Goodger, EMEA managing director at Tourism Economics, said “travellers are more active in 2026 than ever before”.

“Leisure travel remains a key priority in consumer budgets, even as travellers are adapting how and where they visit in response to ongoing disruption and cost-of-living pressures,” he said. “The industry is on course for another record year.”

The report says growth is set to accelerate into 2027 and remain strong through 2032, as the industry recovers from crises in roughly half the time it took two decades ago.

Global international arrivals are expected to rise by eight per cent next year as disruption eases.

The report predicts the Middle East will see the largest increase in international arrivals, 43 per cent, in 2027, after a major drop amid this year’s conflict.

All regions are expected to grow in international overnight arrivals, with Asia and Oceania predicted to grow by 11 per cent, Latin America up seven per cent, and Africa up six per cent.

Europe’s arrivals are expected to grow by five per cent, while North America will grow the least, at four per cent.

While international travel has remained resilient, more people switched to visiting destinations closer to home, causing long-haul trips to dip, although longer journeys are expected to rebound next year.

In-destination spending increased by nine per cent compared to last year, with US$7.8 trillion (£5.79 trillion) spent.

The report also gave insight into what travellers want out of a trip. Three in four people said taking a leisure holiday each year is an important priority to them, despite cost of living pressures.

Meanwhile, 58 per cent of international travellers took a trip abroad in the past two years to attend a specific event, such as a festival, sports event or cultural celebration.

Another major talking point this year has been the rise of AI.

The report revealed that most travellers trust AI to search and recommend, but far fewer are ready to let it complete a booking independently.

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