Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk to maintain ‘two horse race’ in GLP-1 weight loss market

Although different corporations are poised to have GLP-1 receptor agonist medication for weight loss accredited, they don’t seem to be probably to make a lot of a dent in the dominance of Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY) and Novo Nordisk (NVO) who management the market now.

In 2023, the 2 corporations accounted for 99% of all GLP-1R agonist gross sales. By 2030, that determine is just projected to decline to 94% regardless of the probably entry of comparable drugs, in accordance to GlobalData.

The class introduced in $37.2B in gross sales in 2023, the info and analytics firm famous.

Novo markets Ozempic and Wegovy (each semaglutide) for, respectively, kind 2 diabetes and weight loss, whereas Lilly’s principal GLP-1Rs are Mounjaro and Zepbound (each tirzepatide) for, respectively, diabetes and weight loss.

By 2030, GlobalData tasks that 14 different corporations can be advertising GLP-1Rs. However, these corporations are anticipated to deliver in solely $8.8B in income, a determine “15 instances lower than the mixed valuation of the 2 main corporations,” says GlobalData Pharma Analyst Jasper Morley.

GlobalData’s evaluation mirrors that given in June by J.P. Morgan’s Holly Morris and Cantor Fitzgerald’s Louise Chen who spoke on the Seeking Alpha Investment Summit on the weight loss medication market. Morris stated that each corporations’ dimension and getting to market first have probably cemented their management of the house, whereas Chen famous that differentiation can be key for any new entrants in the market.

Lilly (LLY) and Novo (NVO) even have their very own superior GLP-1R medication in the pipeline. For the previous, it has the oral capsule orforglipron and the GIP/GLP-1/glucagon receptor agonist retatrutide in section 3, in addition to three different weight problems medication in section 2. Novo has CagriSema, a mix of semaglutide and the amylin analogue cagrilintide in addition to an oral model of semaglutide to be taken each day. The Danish firm additionally has three different weight loss medication in section 2.

One of probably the most eagerly anticipated new weight problems medication to doubtlessly come to market that’s not from Lilly or Novo is Amgen’s (AMGN) MariTide, which is each a GLP-1R agonist and a GIPR agonist. It is at the moment in section 2 for diabetes and weight loss.

However, that candidate is predicted to generate solely $3B in gross sales in 2030, in accordance to GlobalData.

Other candidates to look out for embrace Viking Therapeutics’ (VKTX) section 2 VK2735, which Seeking Alpha analyst Stephen Ayers just lately gave a bullish evaluation of. An oral model of the candidate is in section 1. Roche (OTCQX:RHHBY) has three candidates in section 1 growth: a GLP-1R agonist, a twin GLP-1 /GIP receptor agonist (identical mechanism of motion as Mounjaro and Zepbound), and an anti-latent myostatin.

In addition, Zealand Pharma (OTCPK:ZLDPF) and Boehringer Ingelheim are growing survodutide whereas Altimmune’s (ALT) pemvidutide.